POLITICAL SITUATION IN EGYPT

POLITICAL TURMOIL IN EGYPT

                                                                                   Courtesy: Navjot Singh.

Egypt's transition from dictatorship is chaotic and murky. Muslim Brotherhood's showdown with protesters are dimming the chances of a positive outcome.

EGYPT BEFORE MORSI........

•  Egypt has long been a presidential republic, with presidential elections every six years, the pre-uprising political situation can best be described as a dictatorship. Hosni Mubarak, who took over from the assassinated Anwar Sadat in 1981, was serving his fifth term as president when he was ousted in 2011.
•  Mubarak derived much of his ‘legitimacy’ by keeping the Islamist forces away from power, he also had close ties with the military which has a strong position in Egypt, until the military leaders turned against him during the 2011 revolution. 
• In the 2005 presidential elections Mubarak was re-elected with 88.6%. The lack of fair elections and lack of change had turned many Egyptians away from politics in this period, turnouts rarely exceeded 15%, even though official figures were reported as much higher. 
• Mubarak was also the leader of the National Democratic Party which dominated the parliament, with 420 out of 518 seats since the 2010 parliamentary elections, while the popular Muslim Brotherhood gained only 1 out of 88 seats reserved for independent candidates.
• The lack of real influence on political life, by fair and free elections, was one of the major motives for the protests in early 2011. 

Hosni Mubarak.....

Former Egyptian PresidentThe 82-year-old former President of Egypt, Hosni Mubarak, ruled Egypt for almost three decades. Mubarak was born in 1928 in a village near Cairo. Under Egyptian president Anwar al-Sadat, Mubarak was Deputy Minister of War from 1972 to 1975. In 1975, he became Vice-President and after Sadat was assassinated, on October 6, 1981, Mubarak became President.

Hosni Mubarak ruled as a quasi-military leader when he took power, and kept the country under emergency law. He won three elections unopposed since 1981, but for his fourth contest in 2005 - after a firm push from the US and other countries- he changed the system to allow rival candidates. However, Mubarak was often accused of suppressing opposition groups and holding unfair elections. In 1995, he escaped an assassination attempt at an African unity summit in the Ethiopian capital of Addis Abeba.

In 2011, after 18 days of massive protests and demonstrations against the government, Hosni Mubarak resigned on 11 February. After his resignation, he and his family fled to a villa at the Red Sea resort of Sharm el-Sheikh. He was arrested on 13 April 2011. The trial is probably ending in mid-February. Prosecutors have demanded the death penalty.

Mubarak is married to half-British Suzanne Mubarak, and they have two sons: Gamal and Alaa.

EGYPTIAN REVOLUTION 2011.....

• The Tunisian revolution of December 2010 sparked the Egyptian people to take to the streets as well. Starting from the 25th of January large scale demonstrations were organised in different cities in Egypt calling for an end to President or dictator Hosni Mubarak’s three-decade rule. Resentment over corruption, lack of freedom of speech, economic issues as food price inflation, high unemployment, low wages and the enrichment of the ruling elite were the reasons for the protests.
• Rumours were spread that on 10th of February that Mubarak would announce his resignation that evening. Instead, he repeated he would remain in power until September. 
• People were angry that Mubarak did not step down, protests resulted in a nationwide escalation dubbed ‘Farewell Friday’ on the 11th of February. At 16.00 hour the same day the Egyptian Vice-president Omar Suleiman announced in a televised address that President Hosni Mubarak had stepped down and had handed over authority to the SCAF.
• After the groundbreaking developments and the Revolution in Egypt in the beginning of 2011 and the resignation of autocratic president Hosni Mubarak on 11 February 2011, the military council (Supreme Council of Armed Forces, SCAF) took over the country. In June 2012, SCAF dissolved parliament in line with a ruling from the High Constitutional Court that declared the constitutional articles that regulated parliamentary elections to be invalid.

ELECTIONS.....

• The elections for the new People's assembly took place in multiple stages. On 28 November, 14 December 2011 and 3 January 2012 the Egyptians cast their ballot for the lower house elections. On each ballot, voters had to vote for a national party list and a local candidate in a first-past-the-post-system. Two-thirds of the 498 elected seats were filled based on the party lists and a proportional system, and the last one-third through the local candidates. An additional 10 politicians were chosen by the military chief.
• On 29 and 30 January, Egyptians held the first round for the Shura Council, the upper house, in elections that will be staggered in two stages. The second round took place on 14 and 15 February, with run-offs on 22 February.
• Turnout for the first round of elections on 28 November was 59%.
• On 14 and 15 December 2011 the second round of the elections for the People Assembly took place, with run-offs on 21 and 22 December In this round, voting took place in districts around the Nile Delta, traditionally a stronghold of political Islam.The voter turnout was 64%, exceeding that of the first stage. The results were similar. The FJP won 49% of the votes, the Al Nour Party 28%. The Egyptian Bloc obtained only 5% of the votes, the Revolution Continues just 1%.

• On 3 and 4 January 2012 the remaining voters cast their ballots in the final stage of the parliamentary polls, with run-offs on 10 and 11 January. Over 35% of the votes were won by the FJP, again winning the election round. The conservative Salafist Nour Party won 27,5%. The liberal Egyptian Bloc Alliance obtained 5.2 percent of the votes. The Revolution Continues Alliance won only 2 percent of the votes.
• The final resulte of the electons were as follows:

Party	Percentage	Seats in PA
Democratic Alliance (incl. Freedom and Justice Party)	46,3%	235 (213)
Islamist Alliance (incl. Al-Nour Party)	24,4%	124 (107)
Al-Wafd	7,5%	38
Egyptian Bloc (incl. ESDP*)	6,7%	34 (16)
Independents	5,1%	26
Felool parties	3,1%	16
Al-Wasat	2%	10
Reform and Development Bloc	1,6%	8
The Revolution Continues (incl. SPAP and ESP*)	1,4%	7
Total of elections	98%	498
Appointed by SCAF	2%	10
Total in Peoples Assembly	100%	508

(www.europeanforum.net)

PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS 2012......

• The 23rd of May marked what is commonly seen as a historic moment in Egypt, with the first free and democratic presidential elections.
•  The first round in which 12 candidates competed against each other was held on the 23rd and 24th of May and took place in an orderly fashion, except for the assault on candidate Ahmed Shafiq after he casted his vote. Moreover, the process of the elections has been well received by both Egyptians as the international community. The voter turnout was 46.42%.
• On 28 May it was announced that Mohamed Morsi and Ahmed Shafiq won most votes, although not enough to determine a definite winner. The following three best candidates were Nasserist and left-wing candidate Hamdeen Sabahi, who by the revolutionaries was viewed as ‘one of us’ and has long been a strong opposition figure against Mubarak, also participated in founding the anti-Mubarak Kifaya (Enough) movement.
• Former Brotherhood candidate Abdel Fotouh came in fourth as the moderate Islamist candidate who was seen as able to bridge the gap between supporters of secularism and the Islamists, but was therefore also criticized of having too many different faces. Amr Moussa, who served as Foreign Affairs Minister under Mubarak and was the former President of the Arab League was the last candidate to receive more than 10% of the vote. He was seen as a liberal and as less affiliated with the Mubarak regime than Shafiq.
• The results of the first round are presented in the table below......

Candidate	Number of votes	Percentage
Mohamed Morsi	5,764,952	24.7%
Ahmed Shafiq	5,505,327	23.6%
Hamdeen Sabahi	4,820,273	20.7%
Abdel Moneim Aboul Fotouh	4,065,239	17.4%
Amr Moussa	2,588,850	11.1%
Mohamed Selim al-Awa	235,374	1.0%
Khalid Ali	134,056	0.5%
Abu al-Ezz al-Hariri	40,090	0.01%
Hesham al-Bastawisi	29,189	0.01%
Mahmoud Hossam	23,992	0.01%
Mohamed Fawzi Eissa	23,889	0.01%
Hossam al-Din Kemal Kheirallah	22,036	0.01%
Abdullah al-Ashal	12,249	0.005%

• Because no candidate received a majority of the votes cast, a runoff between Mohamed Morsi and Ahmed Shafiq took place on 16 and 17 June.
• The latter encountered a lot of opposition, being criticized as a remnant of the Mubarak regime - having been Prime Minister between 29 January and 3 March 2011, while others see him as the person who was most likely to bring stability. Consequently, the period between the two election rounds was marked by polarisation, tumult and repeated protests
• The second election round proceeded less organised than the first round, as the two presidential campaigns exchanging accusations of electoral fraud. The total voter turnout came down to 51,6%. 
• The day after the elections the Muslim Brotherhood immediately declared their candidate, Mohamed Morsi, the winner of the run-off. In reaction, Ahmed Shafiq did the same. But it took a week to find out who the real winner was. Eventually it was announced on 24 June, that Morsi won with 51,7% of the vote, representing around a quarter of the Egyptian population.
• Binyamin Netanyahu, the Israeli prime minister, said in a statement that he "respects the outcome" of the election, and "expects to continue co-operation with the Egyptian administration". The White House also congratulated Mursi, and urged him to "advance national unity by reaching out to all parties and constituencies". 

Mohamed Morsi .......

President

Mohamed Morsi was elected president in the run-off of Egypt’s first free elections held in 2012. He participated as a former member of the Guidance Bureau of the Muslim Brotherhood and chairman of the Muslim Brotherhood’s Freedom and Justice Party (FJP), taking over the candidacy of Khairat al-Shater who was disqualified from running by the High Election Commission due to a past fraud conviction. He has a long history of activism within the Muslim Brotherhood and was detained several times, the last time being on January 28, 2011 during the revolution, Morsi was a member of the Egyptian People’s Assembly from 2000 to 2005.

In his victory speech on 24 June, 60-year old Morsi, urged Egyptians "to strengthen our national unity" and promised to be a president for all Egyptians. Therefore he gave up his membership of the Muslimbrotherhood and is in search of independent ‘technocrats’. Morsi has pledged to restore security and improve the heavily damaged economy.

THE FALL OF MORSI.....

• The revolutionary momentum currently making waves in Egypt once again is not primarily a revolt against one man or even one state, but an uprising against conditions which are fast becoming universal features of the current crisis-ridden world economic order: permanent mass unemployment, rampant inflation in the price of basic goods (food and fuel in particular) and merciless attacks on welfare for the poor. 
• President Morsi has overseen a year in office in which food prices have doubled, and has – at the behest of the IMF – committed himself to ending the fuel subsidies on which millions of the poorest Egyptians depend. He has signed up to a Free Trade Agreement with the EU that will exacerbate unemployment and rural impoverishment and has shown his commitment to imperial interests by flooding the Gaza tunnels with sewage and calling for a ‘no-fly zone’ (code for NATO bombardment) in Syria. 
• In so doing, he has attempted to ensure that the Mubarak strategy of subservience to American, British and Israeli interests is not only maintained, but deepened – at the cost of basic living standards and at a time when the neo-colonial world order is clearly breaking down under the double hammer blows of economic crisis and third world resurgence.
• On the night of July 2, Morsi delivered a defiant speech that would be his final address as president. He warned that the country may descend into an endless spiral of violence if his “legitimate” right to rule as elected president was challenged. He repeated the word “legitimacy” dozens of times, at one point going so far as to say that he was willing to die if his claim to power was not honored.
  
• The next day, the army deployed troops and armor at key locations across the country, tightening its grip on major thoroughfares and surrounding two large rallies that had formed in support of Morsi.
• Sissi , who never mentioned Morsi by name, declared that the chief of Egypt’s constitutional court would assume the presidency on an interim basis. A cabinet of technocrats would be formed to manage the country’s day-to-day affairs, he said, until new elections are scheduled. The country’s new constitution was suspended. In effect, Egypt had gone back to square one.
  
• Tens of thousands of Morsi’s supporters who had gathered at a the Rabaa al-Adeweya mosque in the Nasr City neighborhood, erupted in anger at the announcement, with chants of “Down with military rule” filling the air. Surrounded on several sides by soldiers and military vehicles, the crowd showed a mixture of shock, dejection and outrage
• Morsi’s election last year with a slim 51 percent majority was celebrated in Tahrir as a victory over a return to Mubarak’s regime, embodied in rival candidate Ahmed Shafik, a retired Air Force general. Yet, within twelve months, millions of Egyptians lost faith in Morsi’s ability to lead the country and the role the Muslim Brotherhood played at the helm of power.
• Morsi’s overthrow was precipitated by a campaign launched on May 1, Labor Day, by a group of young activists who called their grassroots movement “Tamarod,” Arabic for “rebel.” They set about collecting signatures on a petition that demanded Morsi step down and which called for a mass protest on June 30 to mark the first anniversary of his inauguration.
• Morsi has been held incommunicado in an undisclosed location since July 3. Within twenty-four hours of the military’s intervention, security officials had arrested top Brotherhood figures, including the group’s former General Guide, 84-year-old Mehdi Akef, as well as the head of the Brotherhood’ Freedom and Justice Party, Saad el-Katatni. Thereby ending Morsi's regime on a permanent basis......

      LONG LIVE EGYPTIAN REVOLUTION.............